We have another decent “Thursday Night Football” matchup (8:20 p.m., Fox) with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Las Vegas Raiders. Hopefully it’s not a dud like last Thursday’s seemingly competitive matchup when the Los Angeles Rams routed the New England Patriots, 24-3.
Heading into NFL Week 14, underdogs and Unders were the way to go in prime-time games, but while Unders went 2-1 over the weekend, favorites went 3-0 against the spread with the Buffalo Bills also beating the Pittsburgh Steelers as two-point chalk on Sunday night and the Baltimore Ravens outlasting the Cleveland Browns, 47-42, as three-point faves in an instant-classic Monday nighter (though it looked like it was going to end on a push before the Browns lateraled themselves into a safety on a final desperation play). So, underdogs and the Under are both 25-15 against the betting lines.
Thursday night’s line has been wavering between the Raiders -3 and -3.5, with most books charging higher vig of -120 for the side most bettors want to take. While the Raiders are 7-6 and fighting for an AFC wild-card spot and the Chargers are 4-9 and mostly playing out the string, the stats on these two teams are pretty similar and point to a play on the Chargers plus the points (+3.5 if you can get it). Of course, this entails trusting Los Angeles coach Anthony Lynn to not make terrible in-game decisions. We don’t have any official stats, but we’re pretty sure he leads the league in time/game-management errors.
These AFC West rivals met on Nov. 8 in the NFL’s other sparkling-new venue, SoFi Stadium, with the Raiders needing to rally for a 31-26 win, which went Over the betting total of 52.5. We expect a similar shootout in Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium, so we’ll take the Over 53.
The Raiders’ Derek Carr and LA’s Justin Herbert shouldn’t have much resistance as the Chargers’ defense allows 27.8 points per game while the Raiders allow 30.1 points per game and has led to them being 9-3-1 to the Over this season (the Chargers are 7-6 to the Over).
The recommendations here are the Under and the Chargers if you can get the 3.5.
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