The 2021 NCAA Tournament reaches its stretch run on Saturday with a pair of highly intriguing Final Four matchups. The second game of the doubleheader pits the No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs against the No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins with a spot in the national title game on the line. Gonzaga enters Saturday's contest at 30-0 on the season and the Bulldogs have won 27 straight games by at least 10 points. UCLA is 22-9 on the year after advancing with upset wins over Alabama and Michigan in back-to-back games.
Tip-off is at 8:34 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium on CBS. William Hill Sportsbook lists Gonzaga as a 14-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 145 in the latest Gonzaga vs. UCLA odds. Before you make any UCLA vs. Gonzaga picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. UCLA in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UCLA vs. Gonzaga:
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA spread: Gonzaga -14
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA over-under: 145 points
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA money line: Gonzaga -1100, UCLA +700
- ZAGS: The Bulldogs are 9-4 against the spread in non-conference games
- UCLA: The Bruins are 5-0 against the spread in the 2021 NCAA Tournament
Why Gonzaga can cover
Gonzaga is balanced and dominant on both ends of the floor. The Bulldogs have the best offense in the country, shooting a blistering 54.9 percent from the field and burying 63.7 percent of their two-point shots. Outside the arc, Gonzaga is also very good, converting 37.1 percent, and UCLA was 10th in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting allowed during conference play. The Bulldogs also pass the ball at an elite level, producing 18.6 assists per game, and they take care of the ball in committing a turnover on only 16.1 percent of their offensive possessions. UCLA ranks outside the top 250 in the country in turnover creation rate (17.6 percent), and the Bruins have only a 7.4 percent steal rate, ranking 295th nationally.
On the margins, Gonzaga is also well above-average in getting to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs are grabbing 30.8 percent of their own misses on the offensive glass. That offensive proficiency, combined with a top-five defense in terms of overall efficiency, paints the picture of how Gonzaga has accumulated a 30-0 mark.
Why UCLA can cover
UCLA's slow pace masks its overall efficiency, as the Bruins are a top-15 offensive team in the country. Mick Cronin's team commits a turnover on only 15.8 percent of possessions, an excellent mark, and opponents have only a 7.2 percent steal rate against UCLA this season. The Bruins put pressure on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 30 percent of their own misses, and they are a strong 3-point shooting team, making 36.9 percent for the season and 39.0 percent in Pac-12 play to lead the conference.
Defensively, UCLA is above-average, and the Bruins led the Pac-12 in defensive rebound rate. The task is difficult against Gonzaga, but the Bruins are very strong in limiting free throw attempts. From there, UCLA is above-average in two-point defense, yielding just 49.5 percent, and that is a key against a Gonzaga team that leads the nation in shooting from inside the arc.
How to make UCLA vs. Gonzaga picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 157 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Gonzaga vs. UCLA? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
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