NBA trade deadline - Five big winners and two losers - ESPN

4:53 PM ET

Who were the winners and losers from a surprisingly eventful NBA trade deadline?

Despite the NBA's new play-in tournament, which meant fewer teams interested in trading away players on expiring contracts to contenders, there was plenty of activity before the buzzer struck on trades Thursday at 3 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic were at the heart of it all, dealing away three starters, including All-Star center Nikola Vucevic.

After the dust settled, who benefited the most from the deadline? Which teams missed out? Let's take a closer look at the impact of the trade deadline on the playoff race and beyond.

Winner: Brooklyn Nets

There was never really any doubt that the Nets acquiring former MVP James Harden in January would be this season's biggest trade. Still, Brooklyn has to feel good about the fact that no other East contenders were able to swing a blockbuster deal before the deadline. Although the Milwaukee Bucks (P.J. Tucker) and Philadelphia 76ers (George Hill) added playoff-tested veterans, neither newcomer is likely to make his team a favorite over the Nets in a seven-game series.

A Kyle Lowry trade could have more materially altered the balance of power in the East. Instead, Lowry is sticking with the Toronto Raptors after they declined offers for him before the deadline.

Loser: Los Angeles Lakers

Out West, the defending champs did see the conference's other contenders make moves while being unable to complete one themselves. Depending on the impact of injuries to Anthony Davis and LeBron James, a realistic playoff path for the Lakers could see them face the Denver Nuggets (who added wing defender Aaron Gordon to match up with Davis and LeBron), the LA Clippers (who added Rajon Rondo, a part of the Lakers' 2020 title team) and the league-leading Utah Jazz. That's a far tougher gauntlet than the Lakers faced to get to the NBA Finals in the bubble.

Granted, the news wasn't all bad for the Lakers. They're widely considered the favorite to sign Andre Drummond after the Cleveland Cavaliers were unable to find a trade for their center before the deadline. Still, the Lakers would surely have improved their chances of repeating had they been able to construct a complex deal for Lowry.

Winner: Denver Nuggets

Among the eight teams who win the championship in at least 5% of FiveThirtyEight's projections of the remainder of the season, the Nuggets made the biggest deadline swing, adding Gordon from the Magic. Because the Lakers are short-handed, the Nuggets have an excellent chance to move into the West's top four teams and earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs -- with a realistic shot of getting higher in the standings.

Moreover, 25-year-old Gordon isn't strictly a rental. He's got one more year on his contract at the value price of $16.4 million before Denver has to figure out how to manage new deals for both Gordon and promising young forward Michael Porter Jr. With Nikola Jokic playing at an MVP level, the Nuggets have a chance to build on last year's run to the conference finals, and the Gordon deal should help them maximize that opportunity.

Winner: 2021 free agency

The other potential impact of a Lowry trade would have been effectively taking another of the top free agents off the market this summer. Although Lowry cannot sign an extension, a new team trading draft picks or young prospects for him would have been far more inclined to re-sign Lowry using Bird rights, no matter the cost. Now, the chances of open bidding for him seem much more realistic.

Something similar could prove true of Victor Oladipo, who went from the Houston Rockets to the Miami Heat. Had Oladipo gone to a capped-out team, re-signing would have been a fait accompli. Because the Heat can still create nearly $30 million in cap space if they renounce Oladipo's rights, it's possible he could be available too.

Loser: Teams sharing in luxury-tax distribution

When NBA teams pay the luxury tax, 50% of that money ends up getting redistributed to the non-taxpaying teams. So it's bad news for everyone else that the Golden State Warriors managed to cut the league's highest tax bill by trading away guard Brad Wanamaker and center Marquese Chriss.

Because this year's tax payments will be reduced by the amount basketball-related income falls short of pre-pandemic projections, it's unclear exactly how much tax the Warriors stood to pay. Still, their pre-reduction tax bill would have been $137 million and has now been slashed to approximately $117 million, depending on how quickly they fill their open 14th roster spot.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics managed to avoid paying the tax -- unless they win the championship, in which case incentives for Jaylen Brown and Evan Fournier would push them happily back into the tax -- by trading Javonte Green and Daniel Theis to the Chicago Bulls after adding Fournier earlier in the day.

On the plus side, the 76ers did add to their tax bill by dealing for George Hill. Still, non-taxpayers probably won't get as much back from the league as they were hoping.

Winner: The buyout market

Neither Drummond nor LaMarcus Aldridge found a new home via trade Thursday, meaning both should have the ability to pick their next destination after completing buyouts with their current teams. The only realistic buyout candidate who did get traded was JJ Redick from the New Orleans Pelicans to the Dallas Mavericks.

Winner: Miami Heat

There's a multipart series to be written about how the Heat have managed their roster and cap this season, which they started as defending East champs and with aspirations of signing Giannis Antetokounmpo as a free agent over the summer. After Antetokounmpo instead signed a supermax extension with the Bucks, Miami pivoted and used the one-year deals signed last offseason as matching salary in trades.

All told, over the past week, the Heat added Oladipo, Trevor Ariza and Nemanja Bjelica while giving up just one rotation player (Kelly Olynyk) and without trading a first-round pick. (Miami did send Houston swap rights on the team's 2022 first-rounder.) Granted, the Heat still don't look like a championship contender in a more formidable East playoff picture. Nonetheless, they've managed to upgrade their roster this season without sacrificing any flexibility this summer, adding Bird rights on Oladipo in the process.

More help could be on the way, as Miami is reportedly the front-runner to sign Aldridge after his buyout.

MORE: Trade grades for the major deals

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